* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072024 08/25/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 90 82 75 69 60 55 49 46 42 37 34 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 90 82 75 69 60 55 49 46 42 37 34 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 91 84 78 73 63 56 49 44 40 36 34 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 9 12 12 15 14 13 14 15 19 26 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -1 0 0 1 2 0 1 -2 -3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 278 268 262 267 264 268 266 251 247 247 231 235 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 26.2 26.5 26.7 26.3 25.7 25.8 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 125 128 130 126 120 121 119 119 118 118 118 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -51.2 -50.9 -51.2 -51.7 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 42 42 42 40 39 39 39 39 43 42 41 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 18 18 17 17 17 15 15 14 11 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 38 35 15 16 24 23 26 12 8 -7 -5 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -33 -12 -31 -35 -19 -14 -24 21 3 -17 -13 -15 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 2 5 2 1 7 6 6 7 4 5 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2206 2120 2035 1939 1843 1652 1461 1249 1068 878 681 499 334 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.4 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 133.9 134.7 135.5 136.4 137.3 139.1 140.9 142.9 144.6 146.4 148.3 150.1 151.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -14. -21. -28. -34. -40. -44. -48. -51. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -18. -25. -31. -40. -45. -51. -54. -58. -63. -66. -70. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 17.9 133.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072024 GILMA 08/25/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 792.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.01 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -26.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.03 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 58.2 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072024 GILMA 08/25/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##