* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072024 08/25/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 102 95 87 80 68 59 50 47 42 40 35 31 28 29 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 110 102 95 87 80 68 59 50 47 42 40 35 31 28 29 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 103 95 88 82 70 61 54 49 45 41 38 36 34 34 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 8 8 11 14 12 12 10 11 10 12 22 24 27 24 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 3 0 -3 -6 -6 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 262 276 260 255 264 275 279 232 254 250 233 231 241 238 245 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.6 26.6 25.6 25.9 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.7 26.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 122 124 129 129 119 122 119 119 118 117 117 118 120 123 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 -52.0 -52.8 -53.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 43 42 41 41 40 41 40 39 39 40 41 43 41 41 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 19 18 18 17 17 15 17 15 15 13 12 10 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 46 37 36 18 18 24 25 18 7 4 -6 -7 -22 -22 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -24 -39 -18 -30 -22 -13 -34 -5 6 -7 5 9 -4 6 -13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 4 4 4 4 3 3 5 6 3 7 6 8 7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2156 2204 2119 2023 1927 1736 1534 1344 1152 951 744 560 423 289 182 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.4 20.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 133.1 133.9 134.7 135.6 136.5 138.3 140.2 142.0 143.8 145.7 147.7 149.5 150.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 8 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -12. -19. -27. -35. -43. -49. -54. -59. -62. -64. -66. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. -1. -2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -2. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -4. -2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -23. -30. -42. -51. -60. -63. -68. -70. -75. -79. -82. -81. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 17.9 133.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072024 GILMA 08/25/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 850.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -26.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.03 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.4 58.2 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072024 GILMA 08/25/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##