* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072024 08/25/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 117 112 105 97 81 64 50 42 38 33 28 23 22 23 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 117 112 105 97 81 64 50 42 38 33 28 23 22 23 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 115 108 99 92 79 67 58 52 46 41 37 35 33 33 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 5 7 8 10 11 11 11 13 14 12 19 21 22 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 0 0 2 2 2 1 1 2 -4 -6 -6 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 221 262 303 290 265 277 277 260 256 273 255 245 244 234 239 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.0 26.0 26.2 26.6 26.0 25.8 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.5 25.7 25.9 26.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 123 123 125 129 123 121 120 119 119 118 119 120 122 123 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 -51.3 -51.0 -51.2 -51.3 -52.3 -53.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 45 42 41 40 39 38 40 38 39 39 39 40 42 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 19 20 21 20 18 18 18 18 16 15 12 11 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 58 51 44 45 23 31 35 35 27 20 5 2 -9 -20 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 -21 -33 -20 -35 -13 -9 -17 17 -9 -19 -3 -27 8 -6 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 2 2 3 5 3 6 3 4 6 4 5 4 3 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2068 2145 2192 2102 2011 1830 1618 1417 1195 983 774 549 320 177 97 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.5 19.9 20.3 20.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 132.1 133.1 134.0 134.9 135.7 137.4 139.4 141.3 143.4 145.4 147.4 149.6 151.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 9 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -10. -14. -21. -30. -39. -46. -52. -58. -62. -65. -67. -69. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 8. 10. 10. 9. 5. 1. -4. -6. -5. -5. -7. -8. -7. -7. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -5. -7. -7. -7. -10. -11. -13. -13. -13. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. -3. -10. -18. -34. -51. -65. -73. -77. -82. -87. -92. -93. -92. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 17.9 132.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072024 GILMA 08/25/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 867.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.05 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.8 58.2 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 0.6% 1.5% 0.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .7% .1% .2% 0% .2% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072024 GILMA 08/25/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##