* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072024 08/25/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 115 111 104 98 83 67 53 44 40 38 33 31 29 29 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 110 115 111 104 98 83 67 53 44 40 38 33 31 29 29 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 112 106 98 91 79 67 57 50 45 41 37 35 33 32 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 2 4 8 7 10 11 15 12 16 14 15 21 23 25 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -1 -2 0 2 1 -1 1 2 2 -1 -3 -3 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 123 199 252 295 279 261 284 291 266 272 250 238 234 247 257 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.2 26.0 26.0 26.2 26.6 25.6 25.8 25.5 25.6 25.5 25.6 25.6 25.9 26.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 125 123 123 125 129 119 121 118 119 118 120 120 123 126 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -52.2 -53.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 4 5 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 47 46 43 43 40 39 40 38 39 39 40 40 41 41 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 19 18 19 18 17 16 15 15 16 14 13 11 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 65 54 47 45 28 25 29 38 34 23 17 5 -3 -14 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 -13 -23 -37 -22 -41 -13 -24 -10 2 -7 -15 -14 -18 0 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 4 3 2 3 4 1 3 3 4 6 2 2 2 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2021 2084 2147 2204 2108 1917 1715 1492 1279 1057 826 587 357 170 30 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.7 19.1 19.4 19.6 20.0 20.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 131.4 132.2 133.0 133.9 134.8 136.6 138.5 140.6 142.6 144.7 146.9 149.2 151.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -12. -18. -26. -34. -41. -47. -52. -56. -59. -61. -62. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 8. 10. 10. 9. 5. 1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 1. -6. -12. -27. -43. -57. -66. -70. -72. -77. -79. -81. -81. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 17.7 131.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072024 GILMA 08/25/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 773.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.03 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.06 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.5 58.2 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.0% 2.0% 4.3% 0.6% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 0.7% 1.4% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.5% 1.3% 1.2% .1% .3% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072024 GILMA 08/25/24 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 65 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##