* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072024 08/24/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 82 78 73 66 58 49 46 42 40 39 38 37 37 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 84 82 78 73 66 58 49 46 42 40 39 38 37 37 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 83 79 75 70 63 56 49 44 40 37 34 32 31 30 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 3 3 5 7 10 10 11 9 14 16 17 21 24 23 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -2 -1 0 0 1 1 2 3 3 1 -4 -5 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 184 92 168 238 262 258 264 260 262 264 255 260 263 267 265 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.4 26.2 26.0 26.0 26.6 25.9 25.9 25.6 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.8 26.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 127 125 123 123 129 122 122 119 121 119 120 119 121 128 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -51.2 -51.4 -51.8 -52.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 51 48 45 44 42 39 39 38 37 39 41 44 45 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 21 19 18 19 18 16 16 16 15 14 13 12 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 68 65 57 52 48 31 33 36 46 31 34 12 3 -7 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 -12 -17 -28 -36 -28 -11 -24 -14 8 1 9 -8 -35 -8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 4 3 3 5 1 3 4 5 5 2 0 1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1952 2021 2092 2164 2183 2002 1800 1598 1366 1132 899 669 422 210 62 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.8 19.1 19.5 19.8 20.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 130.5 131.4 132.3 133.2 134.1 135.8 137.7 139.6 141.8 144.0 146.2 148.4 150.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 11 11 11 10 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -17. -21. -25. -28. -31. -33. -35. -37. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -5. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -7. -12. -19. -27. -36. -39. -43. -45. -46. -47. -48. -48. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 17.6 130.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072024 GILMA 08/24/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.03 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 575.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.07 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 58.2 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 2.5% 2.7% 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 6.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.3% 4.0% .9% 0% .1% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072024 GILMA 08/24/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##