* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072024 08/24/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 74 71 67 60 53 48 43 39 36 33 32 32 33 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 77 74 71 67 60 53 48 43 39 36 33 32 32 33 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 76 71 67 63 56 50 45 40 35 32 29 27 26 26 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 3 1 2 4 9 13 14 16 16 19 23 23 24 22 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 -1 -4 -5 -6 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 185 206 109 198 254 270 260 263 281 265 276 268 261 262 269 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.1 25.9 26.1 26.5 25.5 25.7 25.5 25.6 25.5 25.5 25.7 26.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 129 127 124 122 124 128 118 121 119 120 119 118 121 125 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -52.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 52 51 47 46 43 41 40 42 39 41 41 44 43 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 21 20 19 18 17 17 15 15 14 12 11 10 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 76 71 66 59 51 32 31 33 36 37 22 12 -4 -11 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 -3 -2 -13 -25 -17 -41 -14 -26 -11 -15 -24 -21 -5 -13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 4 4 4 3 5 3 4 5 4 5 5 2 4 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1885 1941 1998 2069 2143 2106 1925 1702 1480 1226 941 691 468 268 138 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.7 17.8 18.0 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 129.6 130.4 131.2 132.2 133.1 134.8 136.5 138.6 140.7 143.1 145.8 148.2 150.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 10 11 12 12 11 10 11 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -23. -26. -28. -31. -32. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -12. -13. -13. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -13. -20. -27. -32. -37. -41. -44. -47. -48. -48. -47. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 17.5 129.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072024 GILMA 08/24/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.09 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.77 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 529.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.31 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.6 58.2 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.66 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.3% 2.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 5.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 14.0% 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 4.7% 9.7% 3.9% 2.5% 1.5% 1.5% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072024 GILMA 08/24/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##