* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072024 08/24/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 81 79 75 72 65 57 50 44 37 33 31 30 30 30 31 32 V (KT) LAND 85 81 79 75 72 65 57 50 44 37 33 31 30 30 30 31 32 V (KT) LGEM 85 80 75 70 66 58 52 45 39 33 29 26 25 23 22 21 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 0 1 1 7 13 15 16 17 22 23 25 26 28 27 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 2 2 0 1 2 3 2 0 -2 -1 -2 -3 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 209 259 290 29 267 263 264 273 271 275 277 278 277 267 266 266 258 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.7 26.4 25.5 25.7 25.5 25.3 25.4 25.4 25.7 26.2 26.7 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 128 125 122 120 127 118 121 119 117 118 118 122 127 132 138 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.9 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 53 51 50 49 45 43 41 41 40 40 40 39 41 42 46 52 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 22 20 19 20 18 17 15 13 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 68 65 74 76 68 56 46 34 33 26 32 21 10 -7 -5 -18 -32 200 MB DIV 3 12 14 5 -4 -24 -16 -27 -16 -14 -5 -11 -38 -23 -16 2 6 700-850 TADV 3 2 4 5 4 4 8 4 5 5 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 LAND (KM) 1829 1879 1932 2010 2090 2168 1977 1765 1552 1298 1025 753 524 302 106 68 149 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.0 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.5 19.9 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.9 129.7 130.5 131.5 132.5 134.2 136.0 138.0 140.0 142.4 145.0 147.6 149.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 9 8 9 10 10 12 12 12 12 13 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 14 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -13. -18. -22. -25. -28. -31. -34. -35. -37. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -10. -13. -20. -28. -35. -41. -48. -52. -54. -55. -55. -55. -54. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 17.5 128.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072024 GILMA 08/24/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.05 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 572.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.8 58.2 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.3% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 3.0% 3.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 5.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 8.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.2% 6.9% 2.1% 1.1% .6% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072024 GILMA 08/24/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##