* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072024 08/24/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 86 82 79 76 67 59 53 47 40 36 33 31 30 29 29 29 V (KT) LAND 90 86 82 79 76 67 59 53 47 40 36 33 31 30 29 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 90 85 79 74 68 59 53 48 41 35 31 27 25 23 21 20 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 4 2 2 5 9 13 13 19 20 21 25 27 32 35 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 2 3 2 1 2 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 4 SHEAR DIR 183 211 219 179 109 232 243 250 248 275 269 276 271 274 270 278 258 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.5 26.2 25.7 25.9 25.6 25.4 25.3 24.9 25.2 25.4 25.7 26.1 26.5 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 131 128 125 120 122 119 118 117 113 116 118 121 125 129 132 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.3 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.9 -53.5 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 56 53 52 51 50 46 44 42 41 41 39 40 40 43 42 44 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 22 22 21 19 19 19 18 15 14 12 11 10 8 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 55 65 66 76 76 60 56 49 33 35 28 22 3 -3 -18 -20 -42 200 MB DIV -10 0 11 33 23 -12 -23 -22 -2 -35 -22 -15 -16 -32 -22 -17 13 700-850 TADV 5 4 1 3 4 4 6 6 6 4 6 1 5 2 5 3 1 LAND (KM) 1766 1817 1871 1935 2002 2122 2091 1868 1645 1402 1129 850 597 371 233 175 159 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.6 17.7 17.9 18.0 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.6 20.1 20.4 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.0 128.8 129.6 130.5 131.4 133.0 134.9 137.0 139.1 141.4 144.0 146.7 149.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 8 9 10 10 11 12 13 12 12 12 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -15. -21. -26. -30. -33. -37. -39. -41. -43. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -14. -23. -31. -37. -43. -50. -54. -57. -59. -60. -61. -61. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 17.4 128.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072024 GILMA 08/24/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.02 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 562.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.27 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.9% 2.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 5.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.5% 6.2% 1.9% .5% .6% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072024 GILMA 08/24/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##