* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072024 08/23/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 90 85 81 78 69 60 51 43 35 31 27 26 26 26 26 27 V (KT) LAND 95 90 85 81 78 69 60 51 43 35 31 27 26 26 26 26 27 V (KT) LGEM 95 89 82 76 71 62 54 47 40 34 29 25 23 22 20 19 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 6 2 3 6 11 15 17 21 21 21 21 23 29 34 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 3 3 3 0 1 3 2 0 -1 -3 -2 -2 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 153 171 205 200 114 193 254 248 260 261 271 276 271 266 271 266 267 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.5 25.9 25.6 26.2 24.9 25.4 25.2 25.2 25.4 25.5 25.7 26.1 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 131 131 128 122 119 125 113 118 116 116 118 118 120 126 131 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -51.9 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.9 -53.5 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 60 57 54 52 52 48 44 42 40 41 40 40 40 46 48 49 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 23 21 22 20 20 18 15 13 12 10 9 8 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 48 55 63 64 71 67 53 52 41 35 20 13 2 0 -8 -21 -38 200 MB DIV -4 -11 1 12 26 -11 -18 -22 -15 -28 -45 -15 -8 -19 -19 -21 -5 700-850 TADV 4 5 4 2 4 8 5 10 7 6 8 6 5 6 3 5 0 LAND (KM) 1719 1766 1814 1864 1917 2058 2186 1984 1739 1496 1234 963 677 466 338 245 263 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.6 18.8 19.2 19.5 19.9 20.2 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.2 128.0 128.8 129.6 130.4 132.2 134.0 135.9 138.2 140.5 143.0 145.6 148.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 12 13 12 10 10 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -17. -23. -29. -33. -37. -41. -43. -46. -48. -50. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -2. -4. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. -19. -19. -17. -16. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -17. -26. -35. -44. -52. -59. -64. -68. -69. -69. -69. -69. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 17.2 127.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072024 GILMA 08/23/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 34.9 to 8.5 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 569.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.8 58.2 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 3.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 9.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.6% 6.3% 2.1% 1.0% .5% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072024 GILMA 08/23/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##