* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072024 08/23/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 101 98 94 89 80 72 62 55 47 40 34 32 32 32 34 34 V (KT) LAND 105 101 98 94 89 80 72 62 55 47 40 34 32 32 32 34 34 V (KT) LGEM 105 100 93 87 80 68 59 51 44 37 31 26 22 20 19 18 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 4 3 4 4 3 7 12 17 24 21 16 15 23 28 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 0 0 2 3 2 3 6 0 -4 0 2 1 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 126 132 139 200 248 322 259 255 253 267 269 279 268 240 225 237 250 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.4 25.8 25.6 25.1 25.6 25.0 25.4 25.1 25.4 25.5 25.9 26.2 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 132 130 127 121 119 114 119 113 118 115 119 120 123 126 131 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -53.0 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 67 63 60 58 54 50 47 44 41 38 39 39 38 42 46 50 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 25 24 24 23 22 20 20 19 16 13 11 10 9 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 33 36 43 53 61 71 74 64 58 47 35 26 22 15 11 -2 -16 200 MB DIV -4 -27 -19 7 41 42 -3 -32 -27 -21 -49 -23 -18 -2 -2 5 -2 700-850 TADV 1 4 4 4 3 3 9 6 12 13 6 6 4 5 7 4 3 LAND (KM) 1604 1642 1681 1728 1777 1892 2029 2160 1948 1705 1453 1161 852 578 368 280 312 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.3 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.8 126.5 127.2 128.0 128.8 130.5 132.3 134.2 136.2 138.5 140.9 143.7 146.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 14 14 13 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -23. -31. -38. -44. -48. -52. -54. -56. -58. -60. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -7. -9. -12. -15. -16. -15. -15. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -11. -16. -25. -33. -43. -50. -58. -65. -71. -73. -73. -73. -71. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 17.3 125.8 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072024 GILMA 08/23/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 562.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.27 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.01 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 58.2 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.3% 2.2% .6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072024 GILMA 08/23/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##