* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072024 08/22/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 106 102 97 87 78 68 58 52 46 37 33 34 34 36 39 V (KT) LAND 110 109 106 102 97 87 78 68 58 52 46 37 33 34 34 36 39 V (KT) LGEM 110 109 103 96 89 76 67 58 50 45 39 33 28 24 22 21 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 5 2 1 4 4 3 9 15 18 20 16 12 14 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 8 5 3 -1 2 0 1 1 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 89 102 131 110 6 262 299 229 261 247 268 273 289 271 252 247 245 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.4 26.0 25.8 25.4 26.2 25.3 25.8 25.5 25.6 25.8 25.7 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 136 133 131 127 122 121 117 125 116 122 119 120 122 121 124 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 72 71 68 65 61 56 51 49 44 41 39 39 38 37 34 39 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 26 26 26 24 25 23 21 20 19 15 12 11 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 16 24 31 32 38 57 65 75 66 58 41 20 10 10 0 2 -2 200 MB DIV -3 -4 -16 -21 12 44 32 -3 -36 -31 -14 -37 -26 -3 0 -5 21 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 4 3 1 7 6 10 10 4 2 2 0 4 0 LAND (KM) 1556 1586 1619 1661 1704 1801 1922 2054 2166 1964 1763 1541 1289 1026 742 482 262 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.7 18.0 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.7 125.4 126.0 126.8 127.5 129.0 130.7 132.3 134.2 136.1 138.0 140.1 142.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 7 5 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -24. -32. -40. -45. -51. -54. -56. -58. -60. -62. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -5. -9. -10. -11. -15. -17. -17. -17. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -8. -13. -23. -32. -42. -52. -58. -64. -73. -77. -76. -76. -74. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 16.9 124.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072024 GILMA 08/22/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 466.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.38 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 1.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.2% 3.3% 1.1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072024 GILMA 08/22/24 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##