* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072024 08/22/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 97 95 90 83 75 70 64 60 56 53 49 47 46 47 48 V (KT) LAND 100 101 97 95 90 83 75 70 64 60 56 53 49 47 46 47 48 V (KT) LGEM 100 101 98 93 88 76 67 61 55 50 47 44 39 35 32 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 14 12 9 4 5 7 6 5 15 15 18 11 10 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 3 4 6 2 1 0 0 2 4 5 1 4 1 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 94 92 95 105 118 96 194 276 296 280 276 281 281 296 280 251 241 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.2 26.0 26.5 26.0 26.1 25.8 25.8 25.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 139 136 134 132 132 130 125 123 129 123 124 121 121 119 119 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -51.5 -51.1 -51.5 -51.2 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 73 73 72 69 67 63 59 54 51 46 43 42 40 40 40 42 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 25 28 27 26 25 26 24 23 23 23 20 19 17 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 12 17 22 28 41 46 71 74 83 79 86 72 58 51 43 31 26 200 MB DIV 12 7 16 19 18 -22 14 36 2 -26 -34 -18 -37 -15 11 3 -13 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 2 4 1 2 3 5 8 9 6 1 1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1533 1564 1593 1624 1657 1750 1861 1989 2138 2117 1902 1689 1457 1246 1056 837 608 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.8 17.9 18.2 18.6 18.9 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.9 124.5 125.1 125.7 126.3 127.7 129.3 131.1 132.9 134.7 136.7 138.7 140.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 8 7 6 3 3 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -16. -22. -28. -33. -37. -40. -42. -44. -46. -49. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -5. -5. -7. -7. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -3. -5. -10. -17. -25. -30. -36. -40. -44. -47. -51. -53. -54. -53. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 16.5 123.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072024 GILMA 08/22/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.02 0.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.38 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 360.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.50 -2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.23 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.5% 10.5% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 3.9% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.9% 2.4% 1.5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072024 GILMA 08/22/24 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##