* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072024 08/22/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 100 101 98 96 89 83 77 72 68 60 57 53 51 49 47 47 V (KT) LAND 95 100 101 98 96 89 83 77 72 68 60 57 53 51 49 47 47 V (KT) LGEM 95 100 100 97 93 83 75 69 63 56 50 46 41 37 33 29 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 10 10 9 2 2 5 5 7 11 14 14 17 18 20 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 2 2 3 1 -1 1 1 2 5 5 4 9 9 10 SHEAR DIR 72 87 88 68 93 73 188 255 270 291 264 264 255 284 268 278 256 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.8 27.0 26.6 26.0 26.6 26.3 26.3 26.0 25.7 25.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 140 138 135 133 131 133 129 123 129 127 127 124 120 119 119 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -51.4 -52.0 -51.4 -51.6 -50.9 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 -51.6 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 74 74 74 73 71 68 63 60 56 53 50 45 41 40 40 43 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 29 27 28 28 29 29 29 29 25 25 23 22 20 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 4 14 18 24 28 36 52 64 74 76 69 69 55 61 58 56 39 200 MB DIV 26 10 3 15 2 1 11 15 14 -18 -27 -23 -29 -27 3 7 -18 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 1 2 2 0 3 2 7 7 8 0 6 0 0 LAND (KM) 1508 1541 1565 1599 1635 1719 1806 1928 2066 2216 2024 1812 1576 1341 1119 910 701 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.6 16.8 16.9 17.0 17.2 17.6 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.5 124.1 124.7 125.3 125.9 127.2 128.7 130.2 132.0 133.8 135.6 137.6 139.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 11 10 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 9 8 6 4 2 4 6 0 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -13. -19. -24. -29. -32. -35. -36. -38. -40. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -4. -3. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 6. 3. 1. -6. -12. -18. -23. -27. -35. -38. -42. -44. -46. -48. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 16.4 123.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072024 GILMA 08/22/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.07 0.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 5.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.54 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 278.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.59 -4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.22 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.4% 17.0% 13.5% 11.2% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.1% 10.8% 3.1% 2.5% 0.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.5% 9.3% 5.5% 4.6% 3.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 24.0% 7.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 16.2% 8.1% 4.7% 3.3% 2.1% .1% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072024 GILMA 08/22/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##