* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072024 08/21/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 98 102 104 102 97 91 85 80 77 72 67 64 60 60 58 57 V (KT) LAND 90 98 102 104 102 97 91 85 80 77 72 67 64 60 60 58 57 V (KT) LGEM 90 98 102 101 98 90 82 74 70 66 63 59 54 49 45 42 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 9 10 10 5 3 1 5 10 10 11 16 9 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 2 4 2 2 4 4 0 0 6 7 5 6 7 0 SHEAR DIR 49 63 90 79 85 118 76 119 17 272 286 249 274 278 275 229 224 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.2 27.0 27.1 26.9 26.5 26.1 26.9 26.3 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 142 140 139 134 132 134 132 127 123 133 127 124 122 121 122 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 -51.1 -51.5 -50.8 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 73 73 75 75 74 70 67 62 56 50 49 46 40 40 44 43 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 26 27 27 28 28 28 27 27 26 25 25 23 24 22 21 850 MB ENV VOR 0 1 8 10 18 33 37 53 62 69 60 59 60 54 36 31 28 200 MB DIV 4 17 -8 -17 10 15 2 33 35 7 -18 -20 -10 -28 -25 -6 -15 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -1 0 1 2 2 0 2 2 4 9 11 7 3 3 0 LAND (KM) 1475 1519 1565 1578 1593 1680 1766 1868 2025 2140 2188 1985 1697 1512 1413 1255 1025 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.3 17.4 17.6 17.7 17.9 18.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.9 123.6 124.2 124.7 125.1 126.5 127.7 129.2 131.2 132.7 134.1 136.0 138.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 7 8 12 10 7 6 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 10 9 8 5 3 4 6 5 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -5. -10. -16. -20. -24. -27. -29. -30. -32. -34. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 2. 5. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 9. 8. 5. 3. -0. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. 0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 12. 14. 12. 7. 1. -5. -10. -13. -18. -23. -26. -30. -30. -32. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 16.2 122.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072024 GILMA 08/21/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.14 1.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 6.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.53 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 250.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 -4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.17 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.9% 20.2% 15.7% 13.1% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 27.7% 25.0% 8.0% 6.9% 1.4% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 5.5% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 20.3% 15.4% 7.9% 6.7% 3.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 55.0% 82.0% 67.0% 36.0% 22.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 37.6% 48.7% 37.4% 21.3% 12.9% 3.7% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072024 GILMA 08/21/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##