* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072024 08/21/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 83 85 86 82 77 74 72 69 67 63 60 56 53 52 51 V (KT) LAND 75 79 83 85 86 82 77 74 72 69 67 63 60 56 53 52 51 V (KT) LGEM 75 80 83 85 84 79 72 67 62 59 57 55 50 43 36 31 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 10 8 11 14 7 6 5 5 10 10 16 18 19 17 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 -2 -1 2 10 10 11 8 11 10 SHEAR DIR 50 56 77 102 95 99 72 36 324 315 289 275 276 275 288 269 267 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.9 26.5 25.7 26.2 25.4 25.9 25.9 25.6 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 144 143 140 135 132 131 131 128 120 125 117 122 122 119 114 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.9 -50.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -51.4 -51.6 -50.9 -50.9 -50.7 -51.1 -51.3 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 77 75 76 77 76 74 69 64 61 54 51 49 47 45 48 49 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 25 26 27 27 26 26 28 27 28 27 27 26 24 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -3 0 11 14 34 40 59 71 77 84 87 82 69 59 46 32 200 MB DIV -17 -2 2 -7 -1 9 3 20 11 26 -16 -26 -39 -58 -37 -15 -3 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 3 2 8 11 18 9 9 5 LAND (KM) 1467 1498 1530 1565 1589 1635 1704 1813 1904 2019 2160 2026 1813 1601 1380 1193 1017 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.4 16.6 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.7 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.5 123.1 123.6 124.2 124.8 125.9 127.1 128.7 130.0 131.6 133.5 135.5 137.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 10 10 10 10 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 17 12 11 10 9 6 4 2 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -18. -20. -22. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. -0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 11. 7. 2. -1. -3. -6. -8. -12. -15. -19. -22. -23. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.9 122.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072024 GILMA 08/21/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.29 2.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.50 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 -5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.14 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.4% 20.5% 15.1% 12.5% 10.0% 14.1% 9.9% 0.0% Logistic: 10.7% 22.3% 5.1% 3.9% 1.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.7% 4.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.3% 15.8% 6.8% 5.5% 3.7% 5.0% 3.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 40.0% 73.0% 60.0% 41.0% 31.0% 24.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 24.6% 44.4% 33.4% 23.2% 17.3% 14.5% 2.2% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072024 GILMA 08/21/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##