* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072024 08/21/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 72 75 79 82 78 77 70 65 63 60 54 52 48 46 43 V (KT) LAND 65 69 72 75 79 82 78 77 70 65 63 60 54 52 48 46 43 V (KT) LGEM 65 69 71 73 75 77 76 72 66 61 58 54 48 42 35 30 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 9 7 9 8 8 5 3 5 8 10 13 18 24 25 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 -2 2 0 6 5 6 10 10 11 SHEAR DIR 51 57 61 82 95 69 106 101 190 265 248 250 262 276 276 279 270 SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.5 27.0 27.0 26.7 26.2 25.9 25.4 24.8 24.9 25.0 24.8 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 148 147 145 143 137 132 132 129 125 122 117 111 113 114 111 116 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -51.3 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.2 -51.0 -50.7 -50.8 -50.6 -51.4 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 74 76 73 75 74 74 70 66 62 57 54 52 52 49 46 47 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 22 23 23 25 27 26 29 27 27 28 29 27 28 25 25 23 850 MB ENV VOR 25 14 1 3 14 28 41 43 65 76 82 80 89 76 52 44 37 200 MB DIV 1 -13 0 -1 -11 4 1 10 7 -3 13 -18 -35 -50 -32 -10 1 700-850 TADV -6 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 4 3 1 3 5 7 11 8 8 6 6 LAND (KM) 1429 1470 1514 1545 1566 1620 1673 1743 1819 1926 2056 2127 1893 1641 1373 1123 930 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.5 16.7 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.2 19.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.0 122.7 123.4 124.0 124.6 125.7 126.8 128.1 129.4 130.9 132.6 134.5 136.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 7 8 8 10 11 12 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 23 15 12 11 10 7 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 1. 5. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 3. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 13. 12. 5. 0. -2. -5. -11. -13. -17. -19. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 15.9 122.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072024 GILMA 08/21/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.40 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 34.9 to 8.5 0.56 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 182.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.14 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.93 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.11 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.6% 25.0% 18.1% 15.2% 12.4% 19.2% 13.8% 8.3% Logistic: 17.7% 38.1% 10.4% 8.6% 2.9% 3.2% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 2.3% 11.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.9% 24.9% 9.7% 8.0% 5.3% 7.6% 4.7% 2.8% DTOPS: 19.0% 34.0% 30.0% 27.0% 26.0% 32.0% 5.0% 0.0% SDCON: 15.4% 29.4% 19.8% 17.5% 15.6% 19.8% 4.8% 1.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072024 GILMA 08/21/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##