* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072024 08/21/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 67 69 72 75 75 75 75 72 68 65 60 56 55 54 55 V (KT) LAND 60 64 67 69 72 75 75 75 75 72 68 65 60 56 55 54 55 V (KT) LGEM 60 65 69 71 73 74 72 69 65 61 57 53 48 42 36 33 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 12 8 7 9 3 6 3 5 8 11 12 10 14 16 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 2 1 5 4 0 -2 -2 0 2 6 3 2 2 4 SHEAR DIR 39 44 50 65 102 49 88 65 102 256 265 264 253 246 232 270 244 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.2 26.9 26.6 25.9 25.7 25.6 25.0 24.3 24.5 25.0 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 148 146 145 140 134 131 128 121 119 119 113 106 109 114 115 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -51.3 -51.7 -51.0 -51.1 -50.8 -51.0 -50.9 -51.3 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 77 74 77 74 75 75 74 70 66 61 59 57 54 54 51 49 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 24 24 27 28 29 30 31 31 31 31 30 28 27 27 26 850 MB ENV VOR 31 24 14 9 8 22 29 26 42 54 64 71 72 66 54 39 36 200 MB DIV 34 3 -6 18 0 11 10 3 17 0 17 -23 -24 -44 -26 0 10 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -2 -2 -1 0 1 2 2 0 6 5 13 9 6 0 2 LAND (KM) 1355 1398 1443 1480 1518 1561 1595 1666 1741 1829 1926 2063 2039 1787 1540 1278 1029 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.2 16.3 16.5 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.0 18.5 18.8 18.9 19.3 20.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.1 121.9 122.6 123.2 123.8 125.0 126.0 127.3 128.7 130.0 131.2 133.0 135.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 10 11 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 32 26 15 11 10 9 6 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 12. 15. 15. 15. 15. 12. 8. 5. 0. -4. -5. -6. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.0 121.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072024 GILMA 08/21/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.46 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.48 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 158.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.21 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 5.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.15 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.81 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.2% 23.7% 18.3% 15.8% 13.0% 20.3% 15.0% 9.0% Logistic: 3.9% 14.6% 3.8% 2.4% 0.6% 1.6% 0.6% 0.4% Bayesian: 1.2% 3.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.8% 14.0% 7.5% 6.1% 4.6% 7.5% 5.2% 3.1% DTOPS: 18.0% 36.0% 27.0% 23.0% 18.0% 23.0% 13.0% 0.0% SDCON: 12.4% 25.0% 17.2% 14.5% 11.3% 15.2% 9.1% 1.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072024 GILMA 08/21/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##