* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072024 08/20/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 51 51 51 55 60 64 65 67 63 60 58 55 54 54 53 V (KT) LAND 50 50 51 51 51 55 60 64 65 67 63 60 58 55 54 54 53 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 52 52 53 55 55 54 52 49 45 42 39 35 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 17 10 9 6 3 4 3 2 7 11 12 14 13 18 21 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 2 2 1 4 2 0 -3 0 0 0 5 6 3 4 SHEAR DIR 32 41 33 35 45 94 44 156 139 164 254 267 266 257 247 249 258 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.4 26.7 26.7 26.3 25.2 25.3 24.9 24.4 24.2 24.2 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 152 148 145 141 136 129 129 125 113 116 112 107 105 105 113 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.5 -50.9 -51.2 -51.3 -51.5 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.1 -51.1 -50.9 -51.2 -50.8 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 77 77 75 77 73 75 75 73 67 63 61 60 58 57 55 52 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 25 25 24 27 30 31 30 31 30 29 30 29 28 28 26 850 MB ENV VOR 44 39 29 26 23 30 34 37 42 61 61 63 56 49 31 28 23 200 MB DIV 48 20 9 3 10 37 56 25 26 31 -4 9 -15 -7 -26 -32 -19 700-850 TADV -7 -5 -5 -3 -3 -1 0 4 3 5 7 7 9 12 13 10 11 LAND (KM) 1279 1324 1374 1413 1454 1510 1550 1604 1668 1739 1814 1913 2052 1986 1750 1518 1259 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.6 19.0 19.3 19.7 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.0 120.9 121.8 122.5 123.2 124.4 125.4 126.5 127.9 129.1 130.2 131.6 133.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 6 9 10 11 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 26 30 28 15 10 8 8 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 7. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 10. 14. 15. 17. 13. 10. 8. 5. 4. 4. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.0 120.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072024 GILMA 08/20/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.56 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.38 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.25 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.18 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -3.0 2.2 to -2.3 1.00 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 16.9% 13.3% 11.1% 9.1% 18.8% 16.9% 10.3% Logistic: 0.3% 2.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 6.4% 4.6% 3.8% 3.1% 6.4% 5.7% 3.5% DTOPS: 5.0% 9.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 12.0% 13.0% 2.0% SDCON: 4.1% 7.7% 4.8% 3.9% 3.0% 9.2% 9.3% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072024 GILMA 08/20/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##