* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072024 08/20/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 43 43 48 53 58 62 64 64 60 57 54 54 53 52 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 43 43 48 53 58 62 64 64 60 57 54 54 53 52 V (KT) LGEM 45 43 42 41 41 41 43 44 44 44 44 42 41 39 36 33 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 14 9 10 7 4 6 6 2 6 10 15 14 17 16 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 2 2 2 0 1 3 0 -1 -1 -2 1 4 6 7 0 SHEAR DIR 43 31 38 36 41 106 93 82 25 95 234 270 268 266 277 272 271 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.4 27.9 27.4 26.8 26.6 26.6 25.7 24.8 24.7 24.3 24.2 24.0 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 151 152 147 142 136 130 128 128 119 110 109 106 105 103 109 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.9 -50.6 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -51.6 -51.3 -51.8 -51.3 -51.7 -51.0 -51.0 -50.3 -50.7 -50.6 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 76 75 76 75 76 74 75 74 71 66 62 59 57 56 52 48 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 24 23 24 23 26 27 29 30 30 31 30 31 30 31 31 28 850 MB ENV VOR 45 46 43 33 26 27 38 41 36 49 51 62 61 60 54 39 18 200 MB DIV 59 68 53 22 1 32 54 23 8 22 12 8 -20 -21 -34 -31 -5 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -5 -4 -3 -1 -2 0 1 3 2 4 6 9 8 11 6 LAND (KM) 1237 1273 1315 1362 1413 1483 1520 1581 1620 1681 1754 1836 1932 2004 1916 1664 1414 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.0 18.6 19.0 19.3 19.8 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.2 120.1 121.0 121.8 122.6 124.0 125.1 126.2 127.3 128.4 129.5 130.8 132.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 10 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 23 25 31 27 13 8 7 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 14. 15. 13. 12. 10. 10. 9. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 19. 19. 15. 12. 9. 9. 8. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.9 119.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072024 GILMA 08/20/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.61 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.38 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.36 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.19 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.20 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.2 to -2.3 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 11.9% 10.0% 8.3% 0.0% 15.0% 16.0% 10.3% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.0% 3.4% 2.8% 0.0% 5.0% 5.3% 3.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 9.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 16.0% 23.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.8% 6.5% 3.7% 2.9% 1.0% 10.5% 14.1% 2.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072024 GILMA 08/20/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##