* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072024 08/20/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 46 49 52 58 65 68 73 70 66 61 56 53 51 49 V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 46 49 52 58 65 68 73 70 66 61 56 53 51 49 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 43 43 44 45 49 51 53 52 50 47 44 41 38 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 18 15 12 9 6 3 3 3 2 5 9 9 13 9 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 3 2 4 0 -2 0 0 -1 -3 0 0 -1 3 7 10 SHEAR DIR 56 45 35 40 49 55 160 49 98 329 274 289 256 276 231 272 287 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.0 27.4 26.7 26.2 26.2 26.1 25.1 24.8 24.9 24.8 24.3 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 150 150 152 143 136 129 123 124 123 112 109 111 111 106 103 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -50.9 -50.7 -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.1 -51.3 -51.1 -51.5 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 77 76 76 76 76 72 74 74 70 68 60 59 56 53 47 42 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 22 24 25 26 27 31 31 34 33 33 31 29 27 23 21 850 MB ENV VOR 57 51 51 45 42 38 48 47 60 63 83 89 89 80 63 38 17 200 MB DIV 57 61 79 67 57 32 49 35 17 48 2 8 32 7 -11 -20 -23 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -6 -4 -2 -3 -2 -3 2 1 3 5 9 14 16 -5 4 LAND (KM) 1151 1197 1238 1280 1328 1417 1470 1511 1558 1607 1677 1746 1816 1923 2013 1936 1710 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.4 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.4 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.8 118.7 119.5 120.5 121.4 123.0 124.3 125.4 126.3 127.4 128.6 129.7 130.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 8 6 5 5 6 6 5 6 8 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 25 26 30 8 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 14. 16. 20. 17. 16. 12. 9. 6. 3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 4. 7. 13. 20. 23. 28. 25. 21. 16. 11. 8. 6. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.6 117.8 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072024 GILMA 08/20/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.62 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.0 34.9 to 8.5 0.30 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 120.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.48 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.21 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.93 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 15.7% 12.0% 9.8% 8.1% 16.8% 17.6% 11.5% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 5.3% 4.0% 3.3% 2.7% 5.6% 5.9% 3.8% DTOPS: 2.0% 16.0% 7.0% 4.0% 2.0% 16.0% 27.0% 1.0% SDCON: 2.0% 10.6% 5.5% 3.6% 2.3% 10.8% 16.4% 2.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072024 GILMA 08/20/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##