* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072024 08/20/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 57 61 66 69 74 77 77 75 70 66 60 56 54 53 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 57 61 66 69 74 77 77 75 70 66 60 56 54 53 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 54 56 57 59 60 63 64 61 58 56 53 48 42 36 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 19 18 13 10 10 6 3 4 4 3 4 7 15 11 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 3 3 1 -1 0 0 -2 0 0 2 0 6 8 9 SHEAR DIR 62 51 43 33 50 32 70 133 96 26 19 294 263 281 283 275 233 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.4 27.7 27.0 26.3 26.1 26.2 26.0 24.7 24.7 24.2 24.4 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 151 152 148 139 132 124 121 123 123 109 108 103 108 104 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 -50.7 -51.2 -51.0 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -50.6 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 79 77 78 77 77 77 74 74 72 70 69 65 59 59 61 56 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 22 24 26 26 29 32 33 34 33 33 32 30 29 26 850 MB ENV VOR 55 52 45 49 53 46 32 40 55 56 70 74 82 65 25 9 22 200 MB DIV 75 52 48 76 81 32 28 51 59 46 49 12 10 -25 7 -15 -10 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -7 -7 -3 -4 -2 -1 1 1 2 1 5 10 13 11 17 LAND (KM) 1139 1172 1212 1253 1288 1413 1454 1489 1558 1574 1599 1664 1801 1881 1906 2003 1716 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.3 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.0 19.5 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.9 117.8 118.7 119.6 120.5 122.6 123.7 124.9 126.2 126.8 127.4 128.6 130.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 8 6 7 5 3 5 8 8 5 7 14 18 HEAT CONTENT 23 21 22 25 27 13 7 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 12. 17. 18. 19. 16. 15. 12. 9. 8. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 19. 24. 27. 27. 25. 20. 16. 10. 6. 4. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.0 116.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072024 GILMA 08/20/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.58 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.26 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.49 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.20 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.2 to -2.3 1.00 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 20.9% 15.5% 13.0% 10.5% 20.8% 18.0% 11.5% Logistic: 0.3% 2.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 7.8% 5.4% 4.4% 3.5% 7.0% 6.1% 3.9% DTOPS: 8.0% 38.0% 23.0% 16.0% 11.0% 27.0% 51.0% 4.0% SDCON: 5.7% 22.9% 14.2% 10.2% 7.2% 17.0% 28.5% 3.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072024 GILMA 08/20/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##