* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072024 08/19/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 50 51 54 58 63 65 66 64 63 60 57 54 51 50 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 50 51 54 58 63 65 66 64 63 60 57 54 51 50 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 51 52 54 56 57 56 55 53 49 47 46 43 40 35 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 22 16 17 20 16 9 11 7 8 2 2 4 6 15 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 6 3 0 1 3 3 0 0 0 3 0 8 2 SHEAR DIR 67 68 60 38 23 10 342 47 29 59 4 184 253 226 268 297 296 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.3 27.5 26.9 26.2 26.1 26.2 25.2 24.5 23.9 23.7 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 152 152 152 153 146 137 131 123 122 124 114 106 101 100 103 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.5 -51.0 -51.2 -51.3 -50.6 -51.1 -50.9 -51.5 -51.3 -52.0 -51.5 -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 78 78 78 77 79 76 72 73 74 76 74 67 58 49 48 46 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 18 19 22 23 26 26 27 26 26 25 24 23 21 18 850 MB ENV VOR 66 77 77 68 70 75 57 47 35 36 29 44 63 80 54 38 21 200 MB DIV 61 80 84 62 74 99 61 70 55 52 24 19 12 8 -23 -13 -11 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -6 -15 -20 -21 -6 -3 -3 -2 0 1 0 8 4 13 -1 LAND (KM) 1052 1109 1176 1216 1260 1330 1383 1430 1481 1527 1566 1618 1722 1778 1803 1858 1940 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.5 15.7 16.3 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.4 18.7 19.2 19.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.5 116.7 117.8 118.6 119.3 121.1 122.5 123.6 124.9 125.9 126.7 127.8 129.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 7 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 7 7 6 8 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 22 24 21 20 23 31 12 6 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. 8. 7. 5. 2. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 13. 18. 20. 21. 19. 18. 15. 12. 9. 6. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.0 115.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072024 GILMA 08/19/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.63 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.20 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.52 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.18 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.2 to -2.3 1.00 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 17.3% 13.9% 11.7% 9.3% 19.0% 18.5% 12.1% Logistic: 0.3% 1.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 6.4% 4.7% 4.0% 3.1% 6.4% 6.3% 4.1% DTOPS: 4.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.8% 5.7% 4.3% 3.5% 2.5% 3.7% 4.1% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072024 GILMA 08/19/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##