* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072024 08/19/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 51 51 53 57 60 61 61 57 50 45 42 41 39 39 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 51 51 53 57 60 61 61 57 50 45 42 41 39 39 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 51 53 54 56 57 55 53 51 47 43 40 37 34 31 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 17 13 17 26 19 19 15 5 13 20 18 6 7 7 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 3 1 4 2 3 -4 -6 4 0 -1 0 2 5 4 8 SHEAR DIR 53 65 58 53 34 24 10 344 347 314 194 155 167 196 223 262 260 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.6 27.8 27.6 27.1 26.4 26.5 26.5 25.7 24.4 23.8 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 151 151 150 152 150 140 137 133 126 126 126 119 106 100 109 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.0 -51.3 -51.1 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 700-500 MB RH 77 79 79 80 78 79 76 72 74 72 65 53 46 38 36 35 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 15 15 17 20 21 21 21 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 66 67 68 68 75 75 66 66 64 85 96 120 115 97 69 58 200 MB DIV 65 70 84 86 81 76 77 73 108 107 18 -12 -7 26 -3 -12 -47 700-850 TADV -10 -6 -5 -3 -14 -30 -26 -14 -15 -6 0 -2 -2 -1 0 3 8 LAND (KM) 989 1022 1063 1121 1189 1284 1336 1418 1432 1467 1551 1607 1641 1666 1711 1800 1952 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.6 17.2 17.4 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.1 115.1 116.0 117.2 118.3 119.8 121.5 123.1 123.5 124.6 126.2 127.4 128.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 11 9 8 8 5 4 7 7 5 5 8 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 11 15 22 22 19 21 16 7 6 4 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 9. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 8. 12. 15. 16. 16. 12. 5. 0. -3. -4. -6. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.9 114.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072024 GILMA 08/19/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.61 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.29 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 83.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.54 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.27 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.14 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.4 2.2 to -2.3 1.00 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 17.1% 14.0% 11.9% 9.5% 17.7% 0.0% 11.5% Logistic: 0.4% 2.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 6.6% 4.9% 4.1% 3.2% 6.0% 0.1% 3.9% DTOPS: 6.0% 7.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 4.7% 6.8% 4.9% 4.0% 3.1% 3.5% .5% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072024 GILMA 08/19/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##