* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072024 08/19/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 41 43 47 51 56 57 57 53 50 46 43 40 39 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 39 41 43 47 51 56 57 57 53 50 46 43 40 39 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 40 41 42 42 42 42 42 40 38 35 33 30 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 19 18 11 22 23 22 16 12 4 6 7 9 11 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 0 -1 3 0 -3 -6 -1 6 6 -1 0 -1 5 7 SHEAR DIR 58 52 62 68 60 28 29 11 11 359 240 200 179 258 287 298 288 SST (C) 29.2 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.8 27.1 26.5 26.6 26.3 24.9 24.7 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 149 149 149 150 150 151 148 144 141 133 126 128 125 111 108 103 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.0 -51.5 -50.9 -51.5 -50.7 -51.6 -51.0 -51.5 -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 75 76 77 77 79 79 79 76 76 74 70 62 52 42 40 40 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 15 16 17 17 19 20 22 22 23 21 20 18 16 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 54 62 70 79 79 65 78 59 66 62 75 90 110 119 101 64 37 200 MB DIV 43 45 50 62 77 94 90 65 90 101 82 30 1 -25 1 -2 -14 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -6 -3 -3 -20 -28 -21 -9 -9 0 0 0 0 5 2 10 LAND (KM) 966 984 1016 1053 1100 1229 1302 1374 1447 1509 1557 1597 1637 1694 1750 1829 1888 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.0 114.1 115.2 116.2 117.2 119.1 120.7 122.0 123.2 124.5 125.7 126.7 127.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 8 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 36 11 15 22 24 21 21 14 8 8 6 2 2 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 19. 20. 20. 20. 20. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -7. -7. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 5. 7. 11. 11. 12. 9. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 16. 21. 22. 22. 18. 15. 11. 8. 5. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.7 113.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072024 GILMA 08/19/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.71 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.35 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 63.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.43 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.27 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.18 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.5 2.2 to -2.3 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 14.0% 11.4% 9.4% 7.5% 15.8% 15.4% 12.7% Logistic: 0.2% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.2% 3.9% 3.2% 2.5% 5.3% 5.2% 4.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.6% 5.6% 3.4% 2.6% 1.7% 3.1% 3.1% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072024 GILMA 08/19/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##