* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVENE EP072024 08/18/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 38 44 55 61 65 67 70 69 66 67 70 69 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 38 44 55 61 65 67 70 69 66 67 70 69 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 34 35 38 42 43 43 44 44 43 41 41 43 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 19 19 18 10 19 17 18 17 24 23 18 18 5 8 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 0 -1 1 5 4 5 2 -4 -1 5 -1 2 1 4 SHEAR DIR 64 60 58 50 51 31 14 21 10 15 29 57 77 86 99 290 275 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.1 27.2 28.0 28.0 28.3 28.9 28.1 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 156 155 152 153 152 148 144 132 133 145 145 147 153 147 117 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -51.5 -51.1 -51.7 -51.3 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -51.2 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 74 73 75 78 78 76 76 75 73 72 75 75 74 76 73 70 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 11 11 11 11 14 20 22 26 28 31 30 29 27 29 26 850 MB ENV VOR 49 50 43 60 68 79 83 76 60 42 30 31 39 51 35 33 3 200 MB DIV 54 47 28 32 33 59 65 77 73 109 86 105 12 -27 -40 7 4 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -6 -8 -6 -6 -18 -22 -18 -11 -5 0 0 0 1 4 6 LAND (KM) 776 837 883 896 933 1081 1272 1460 1626 1728 1798 1841 1806 1634 1425 1336 1312 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.4 16.3 15.8 14.5 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.2 111.3 112.4 113.6 114.9 117.6 120.4 123.0 125.1 126.4 126.8 125.9 123.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 11 8 5 4 11 11 10 10 14 17 HEAT CONTENT 16 18 26 17 13 29 21 11 11 4 5 12 9 12 19 10 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 25. 26. 29. 31. 33. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -10. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 3. 11. 15. 19. 22. 25. 21. 18. 14. 14. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 14. 25. 31. 35. 37. 41. 39. 36. 37. 40. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.5 110.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072024 SEVENE 08/18/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.79 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.35 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.35 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.15 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.2 to -2.3 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 13.5% 10.5% 8.5% 0.0% 15.8% 15.6% 12.8% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 4.6% 3.5% 2.8% 0.0% 5.3% 5.4% 4.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% SDCON: 1.7% 3.3% 2.2% 1.9% 0% 3.1% 3.2% 3.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072024 SEVENE 08/18/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##