* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992024 08/18/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 44 51 62 66 67 70 71 71 71 70 70 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 44 51 62 66 67 70 71 71 71 70 70 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 29 31 34 37 41 43 43 43 43 44 45 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 15 17 18 17 14 18 17 24 23 21 19 10 2 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 1 3 3 2 2 3 0 -2 0 4 5 SHEAR DIR 88 70 70 63 66 55 43 21 24 21 45 58 94 99 349 309 274 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.7 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 27.0 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 158 157 156 152 156 154 151 147 148 154 154 153 153 137 113 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -51.2 -51.8 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 3 3 4 5 6 5 0 700-500 MB RH 76 75 74 73 75 77 77 77 75 74 77 79 80 79 72 67 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 12 13 14 19 23 25 27 27 26 25 23 21 850 MB ENV VOR 31 39 54 56 58 75 77 69 75 62 39 45 65 71 74 42 3 200 MB DIV 88 60 70 69 40 70 71 72 77 60 43 61 94 8 15 -8 21 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -2 -4 -6 -6 -11 -20 -19 -21 -11 -2 1 2 0 0 11 LAND (KM) 722 749 815 879 921 984 1128 1302 1429 1536 1551 1500 1329 1123 966 883 828 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.6 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.6 15.4 14.7 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.5 110.6 111.7 112.9 115.3 117.8 120.2 122.0 123.1 123.1 121.6 119.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 10 7 3 4 11 12 9 11 18 21 HEAT CONTENT 20 18 17 20 28 18 23 19 16 13 13 17 20 24 21 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 7. 14. 21. 26. 29. 30. 33. 36. 38. 40. 42. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -11. -9. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 2. 4. 11. 16. 18. 19. 17. 15. 12. 10. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 19. 26. 37. 41. 42. 45. 46. 46. 46. 45. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 108.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992024 INVEST 08/18/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.86 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.40 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.48 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.17 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.74 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.7% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.7% 16.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 4.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 1.5% 5.5% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 7.2% 4.5% 0.2% 0.1% 6.1% 7.4% 0.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% SDCON: .6% 7.1% 3.7% .6% 0% 4.0% 5.2% 2.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992024 INVEST 08/18/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##