* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992024 08/17/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 37 45 55 62 68 72 74 78 80 82 84 86 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 37 45 55 62 68 72 74 78 80 82 84 86 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 34 38 42 46 50 53 56 60 65 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 23 18 14 14 15 12 10 14 13 17 18 17 17 13 15 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 2 -1 1 0 4 1 3 0 -1 1 1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 66 78 94 89 82 70 77 58 36 20 32 38 47 50 51 79 81 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.8 29.0 28.4 28.4 28.0 27.4 27.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 156 157 159 158 157 154 156 149 148 144 136 136 147 145 146 153 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 -51.6 -52.0 -51.4 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -51.4 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 75 77 77 75 75 75 77 75 74 75 73 78 78 74 71 67 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 9 10 11 11 12 13 16 20 22 27 29 32 34 36 850 MB ENV VOR 12 25 25 32 35 42 46 61 55 78 61 40 -4 -23 -5 22 30 200 MB DIV 44 58 75 66 70 41 50 53 61 58 108 88 136 134 47 44 30 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -3 -8 -16 -18 -20 -10 -2 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 681 691 705 730 770 896 924 1051 1214 1366 1526 1632 1738 1831 1844 1744 1566 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.3 13.7 13.9 14.2 14.9 15.7 16.2 16.6 16.8 16.7 16.5 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.3 107.2 108.0 108.8 109.8 112.0 114.4 117.1 119.8 122.1 124.0 125.3 125.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 9 11 11 13 13 13 10 8 5 7 8 7 7 10 HEAT CONTENT 25 19 21 20 17 22 15 26 13 12 8 5 5 11 10 11 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 7. 14. 21. 27. 31. 33. 34. 36. 37. 39. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 8. 12. 16. 17. 21. 22. 22. 22. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 20. 30. 37. 43. 47. 49. 53. 55. 57. 59. 61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.9 106.3 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992024 INVEST 08/17/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.86 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.29 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.47 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.17 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.92 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.1% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.5% 15.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 4.2% 3.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.0% 4.7% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 5.1% 6.6% 1.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% SDCON: 0% 3.3% 2.1% 0% 0% 3.0% 3.8% 1.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992024 INVEST 08/17/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##