* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992024 08/17/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 27 28 30 34 41 48 54 56 57 57 56 52 50 48 46 V (KT) LAND 25 27 27 28 30 34 41 48 54 56 57 57 56 52 50 48 46 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 28 29 30 32 34 35 36 34 32 30 27 25 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 22 25 22 16 15 12 9 4 6 7 10 15 22 18 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 1 0 2 0 4 1 4 5 4 -2 -2 1 3 0 SHEAR DIR 65 66 65 71 73 62 60 34 355 297 281 299 302 309 313 311 281 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.4 28.8 28.5 27.5 26.0 25.6 25.9 25.9 24.9 25.0 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 160 160 159 162 160 154 151 141 124 120 123 123 112 112 112 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -51.3 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -52.2 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 69 71 75 76 77 76 73 76 74 72 70 68 65 63 57 51 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -6 0 22 27 31 30 35 35 27 37 48 61 76 78 49 35 200 MB DIV 90 73 62 64 84 67 29 47 52 56 90 52 37 45 25 6 -8 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -3 -1 -3 -7 -6 -7 -4 -2 -7 -5 -3 -6 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 677 703 703 691 698 721 796 828 876 1013 1158 1304 1469 1661 1828 1973 2061 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.1 12.4 12.8 13.1 14.0 15.0 16.1 17.2 18.0 18.8 19.3 19.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.1 104.8 105.6 106.3 107.0 108.8 110.9 113.2 115.8 118.6 121.3 123.9 126.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 11 12 13 14 14 13 13 11 11 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 31 37 36 26 22 22 18 18 15 8 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 7. 14. 22. 28. 31. 33. 35. 35. 35. 34. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 5. 9. 16. 23. 29. 31. 32. 32. 31. 27. 25. 23. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 104.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992024 INVEST 08/17/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.87 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.15 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.53 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.26 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.0% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 17.5% 17.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 3.5% 6.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 0.0% 6.1% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 6.9% 2.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992024 INVEST 08/17/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##