* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992024 08/16/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 22 30 39 51 57 63 65 65 65 62 60 59 57 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 22 30 39 51 57 63 65 65 65 62 60 59 57 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 21 23 25 28 30 31 31 31 30 28 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 20 19 22 22 17 13 13 13 10 11 7 16 19 18 9 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 5 -1 4 3 1 -2 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 66 72 66 66 63 84 73 62 47 36 15 299 294 281 273 247 180 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.2 27.1 25.8 25.2 25.6 26.0 26.6 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 158 159 161 159 161 159 155 148 137 123 116 120 124 129 129 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -51.6 -52.1 -51.6 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 69 67 70 72 76 77 77 75 77 74 72 68 65 61 57 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 11 12 13 13 14 14 14 15 16 17 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -9 -9 -5 -2 27 34 33 38 28 46 61 58 69 93 88 65 200 MB DIV 81 74 77 70 55 93 74 48 19 63 25 52 60 58 50 30 17 700-850 TADV 2 4 2 -1 -2 0 -2 -7 -6 -9 -18 -11 -12 -6 -7 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 611 633 642 664 671 667 675 753 767 820 961 1108 1275 1491 1745 1958 2114 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.6 13.3 14.3 15.4 16.7 17.9 18.7 19.6 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.7 103.4 104.0 104.6 105.3 106.8 108.5 110.7 113.2 115.8 118.7 121.5 124.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 7 7 9 11 13 14 14 14 14 13 12 11 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 25 28 31 35 38 23 28 18 17 12 4 0 0 0 0 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 14. 22. 29. 33. 36. 38. 39. 39. 40. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 5. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 10. 19. 31. 37. 43. 45. 45. 45. 42. 40. 39. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.0 102.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992024 INVEST 08/16/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.91 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.08 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% 3.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 1.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992024 INVEST 08/16/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##