* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP062024 08/06/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 51 49 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 51 49 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 50 49 49 49 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 14 13 6 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 294 290 305 285 201 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 26.7 26.9 27.0 26.5 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 133 135 136 130 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.7 -50.9 -50.8 -50.5 -50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 71 69 70 67 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 21 22 21 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 63 59 72 80 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 95 85 54 29 15 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -21 -22 -23 -1 6 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 558 625 700 792 903 1091 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.0 20.1 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.1 114.7 116.2 117.8 119.3 122.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 15 15 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 1 2 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 18 CX,CY: -15/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. 1. -1. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.8 113.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062024 FABIO 08/06/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.43 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 190.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.1 58.2 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.04 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.2% 20.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 7.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.2% 4.1% .5% .5% .5% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062024 FABIO 08/06/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##