* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP062024 08/06/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 60 64 65 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 55 60 64 65 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 56 60 63 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 13 10 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 1 -3 -3 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 310 321 316 305 319 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.4 28.2 28.1 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 150 148 146 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.3 -51.1 -50.7 -51.0 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 79 77 74 72 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 23 23 21 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 50 56 58 72 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 81 112 94 96 61 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -40 -37 -21 -14 -16 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 619 686 702 762 843 957 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.0 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.0 111.7 113.3 114.7 116.1 118.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 14 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 12 14 10 10 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 15. 17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.5 110.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062024 FABIO 08/06/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.55 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 7.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.55 5.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -8.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.60 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 5.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.08 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.4% 34.7% 28.1% 20.0% 14.2% 28.3% 20.7% 12.9% Logistic: 5.8% 18.4% 9.0% 5.5% 1.8% 3.1% 1.5% 1.1% Bayesian: 5.8% 3.8% 2.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 8.7% 19.0% 13.1% 8.8% 5.5% 10.6% 7.4% 4.7% DTOPS: 11.0% 19.0% 14.0% 13.0% 9.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 9.8% 19.0% 13.5% 10.9% 7.2% 7.8% 4.2% 2.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062024 FABIO 08/06/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##