* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP052024 08/08/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 32 28 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 36 32 28 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 35 31 27 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 8 5 6 5 7 6 8 10 15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 0 1 3 1 6 1 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 14 35 47 70 75 124 191 256 243 264 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 24.9 24.3 23.5 23.2 22.3 22.4 22.4 22.1 22.4 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 113 107 98 95 85 86 85 82 85 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -51.1 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.9 -52.4 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 63 59 56 54 53 51 47 46 45 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 22 21 21 19 17 14 13 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 66 65 53 47 36 35 24 28 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 10 26 21 21 10 5 1 -22 9 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 0 -1 0 5 2 7 3 7 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 965 1031 1103 1171 1248 1424 1505 1565 1656 1771 1894 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.4 21.8 22.2 22.6 23.3 23.9 24.7 25.0 25.3 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.0 122.4 123.7 124.9 126.0 128.3 130.2 132.2 133.8 135.6 137.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 12 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 402 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -12. -15. -19. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -15. -22. -28. -34. -38. -44. -48. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.9 121.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052024 EMILIA 08/08/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.28 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 265.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0% 1.6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052024 EMILIA 08/08/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##