* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP052024 08/08/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 45 43 39 31 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 48 45 43 39 31 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 46 43 40 37 30 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 10 7 9 6 4 8 8 8 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 0 1 1 0 2 8 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 3 11 58 63 76 81 145 249 243 242 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.2 24.8 24.0 23.4 22.8 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.3 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 128 113 104 97 90 86 86 86 84 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.5 -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -51.5 -51.2 -51.3 -51.8 -52.5 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 62 63 61 58 57 52 51 48 45 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 23 22 23 21 19 17 15 13 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 55 71 70 60 41 34 21 23 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 -7 -12 22 23 21 11 13 -11 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -9 1 -2 2 3 7 7 8 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 880 951 1025 1097 1181 1317 1491 1554 1658 1762 1856 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.9 21.6 22.0 22.4 23.0 23.6 24.2 24.6 25.1 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.1 120.8 122.5 123.8 125.1 127.0 129.5 131.4 133.4 135.3 137.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 15 13 11 11 11 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 18 CX,CY: -11/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -0. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -20. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -11. -19. -26. -31. -36. -42. -47. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 20.2 119.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052024 EMILIA 08/08/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.25 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 300.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.15 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0% 2.3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052024 EMILIA 08/08/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##