* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP052024 08/07/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 61 59 59 55 47 41 37 33 28 25 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 61 61 59 59 55 47 41 37 33 28 25 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 61 60 58 56 51 44 37 31 26 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 13 9 7 5 4 3 4 4 4 9 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 2 0 3 3 5 0 0 3 1 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 31 37 26 19 36 69 82 91 268 287 261 274 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 27.5 26.5 25.7 25.4 24.6 23.5 22.7 22.7 22.8 22.7 23.1 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 141 131 122 118 109 98 89 89 89 88 94 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.9 -50.6 -50.8 -51.0 -50.9 -51.6 -51.2 -51.4 -51.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 72 69 66 66 61 58 55 53 53 50 45 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 22 21 22 21 19 17 15 14 12 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 46 55 63 74 72 52 44 30 32 3 -1 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 26 -2 -1 33 51 28 -10 4 -8 3 0 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -13 -8 -3 -3 0 2 3 3 3 2 5 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 936 945 944 1016 1062 1184 1321 1490 1622 1701 1780 1919 1730 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 18.1 19.2 19.8 20.4 21.0 21.8 22.3 23.0 23.4 23.6 23.7 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.4 117.7 119.0 120.4 121.8 124.0 126.3 128.5 130.8 132.6 134.0 136.0 138.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 17 15 14 13 11 11 11 10 7 8 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -3. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. -27. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -7. -11. -15. -17. -19. -19. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -1. -5. -13. -19. -23. -27. -32. -35. -38. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.0 116.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052024 EMILIA 08/07/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.32 2.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.46 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 247.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 -4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.25 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 4.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 19.6% 15.3% 12.9% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 3.0% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 7.5% 5.5% 4.5% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.1% 4.2% 2.7% 2.7% 2.2% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052024 EMILIA 08/07/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##