* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP052024 08/07/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 53 52 51 45 39 34 30 27 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 53 52 51 45 39 34 30 27 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 55 54 52 51 46 40 34 28 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 15 12 6 5 6 5 5 3 6 5 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 7 5 2 5 2 4 0 3 5 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 39 34 36 27 27 84 80 95 174 268 242 246 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.3 27.4 26.7 25.8 24.2 23.0 23.0 22.6 22.5 22.6 22.9 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 149 139 133 123 106 93 92 88 87 88 91 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -50.6 -50.8 -51.0 -51.2 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -52.0 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 74 72 69 64 64 58 57 55 52 50 45 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 25 24 23 24 21 20 18 15 14 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 49 50 55 67 81 63 53 49 36 32 24 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 79 31 25 5 26 37 26 -3 -3 -5 -8 9 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -12 -4 0 -4 4 0 1 6 5 8 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 948 916 879 918 978 1077 1199 1402 1519 1601 1733 1867 1830 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.6 18.7 19.5 20.2 21.2 22.1 22.6 23.3 23.8 24.1 24.5 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.0 116.8 117.5 118.9 120.3 122.8 125.1 127.7 129.5 131.6 133.9 136.1 138.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 15 14 12 12 11 9 11 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 13 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 735 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -0. -4. -7. -11. -14. -18. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -5. -8. -12. -16. -17. -20. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -10. -16. -21. -25. -28. -33. -36. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.5 116.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052024 EMILIA 08/07/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.43 3.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 34.9 to 8.5 0.41 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 214.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.66 -4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.33 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 4.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.25 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 16.8% 13.6% 11.2% 8.6% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 2.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 6.4% 4.8% 3.9% 2.9% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.0% 3.7% 2.4% 1.9% 1.4% 2.6% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052024 EMILIA 08/07/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##