* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP052024 08/07/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 58 59 59 57 52 45 39 34 29 26 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 57 58 59 59 57 52 45 39 34 29 26 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 56 56 55 54 50 43 36 30 24 20 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 16 18 15 10 10 5 5 7 6 9 9 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 2 9 10 6 4 3 4 1 0 3 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 42 32 38 45 55 127 118 96 147 254 267 262 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.5 27.9 27.1 25.4 23.3 23.2 22.6 22.5 22.7 22.7 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 150 144 137 119 96 95 89 87 89 90 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -50.8 -51.4 -51.2 -51.8 -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 74 75 72 70 67 61 61 55 53 52 49 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 26 26 24 23 20 18 16 14 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 63 53 61 51 75 67 55 54 44 47 27 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 112 82 44 20 5 12 29 20 -9 5 -13 -15 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -13 -17 -6 0 1 1 0 8 0 8 0 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1025 973 935 927 900 980 1120 1283 1498 1596 1689 1798 1869 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 16.1 17.1 18.1 19.1 20.8 21.9 22.3 23.1 23.5 23.7 24.2 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.2 115.9 116.5 117.4 118.3 121.1 124.0 126.2 129.0 131.1 132.8 134.9 137.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 13 14 15 12 12 11 9 9 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 23 16 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 0. -3. -6. -10. -14. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -13. -16. -18. -19. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. -3. -10. -16. -21. -26. -29. -32. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.1 115.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052024 EMILIA 08/07/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.50 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.24 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.42 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.11 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 23.0% 16.1% 13.0% 9.8% 18.2% 12.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 4.9% 1.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 9.4% 5.7% 4.5% 3.3% 6.1% 4.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 4.1% 5.7% 3.3% 3.2% 2.1% 3.0% 2.1% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052024 EMILIA 08/07/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##