* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP052024 08/06/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 58 58 59 53 49 45 41 37 33 31 29 26 23 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 57 58 58 59 53 49 45 41 37 33 31 29 26 23 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 55 54 49 43 37 30 25 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 16 20 20 19 15 16 13 8 3 4 2 5 10 20 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 5 8 4 6 4 8 2 6 -1 0 1 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 55 47 48 47 55 45 81 80 76 71 15 359 280 245 227 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.0 25.6 24.1 23.3 23.0 22.8 22.7 22.7 23.0 23.5 24.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 153 154 153 146 121 105 96 92 90 89 90 93 98 103 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.8 -51.1 -50.9 -50.6 -50.9 -51.3 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 76 74 74 71 64 62 57 58 54 54 51 49 43 36 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 25 24 25 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 75 71 68 73 77 82 72 57 46 34 37 15 11 2 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 114 109 87 56 23 -1 33 28 6 9 3 0 7 5 10 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -12 -14 -14 -10 -3 -1 0 5 -2 6 2 4 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1127 1074 1031 1004 985 1020 1115 1265 1434 1590 1709 1825 1921 1688 1468 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.9 15.7 16.8 17.8 19.6 20.9 21.6 22.5 22.9 23.0 23.4 24.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.1 115.7 116.2 117.1 117.9 120.3 123.0 125.5 128.0 130.1 132.2 134.4 136.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 12 13 13 15 13 12 11 10 10 12 12 10 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 16 20 19 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 0. -3. -7. -11. -15. -18. -21. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 4. -2. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. -24. -26. -29. -32. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.0 115.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052024 EMILIA 08/06/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.53 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.0 34.9 to 8.5 0.22 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.54 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 4.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.13 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.7% 24.8% 17.2% 14.1% 10.8% 17.7% 12.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 7.6% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 10.9% 6.2% 5.0% 3.7% 6.0% 4.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 10.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 4.9% 10.4% 6.1% 5.0% 3.8% 3.0% 2.1% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052024 EMILIA 08/06/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##