* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP052024 08/06/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 59 58 58 54 50 45 41 35 29 25 21 20 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 59 58 58 54 50 45 41 35 29 25 21 20 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 58 60 61 61 58 51 43 36 31 25 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 19 22 19 17 22 13 10 9 6 4 2 5 13 18 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 -1 -1 1 1 1 -2 0 3 -2 1 -3 -2 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 78 70 67 69 68 82 57 89 128 111 187 303 191 239 237 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.3 26.7 24.3 23.7 23.2 23.0 22.7 22.9 23.0 23.2 24.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 153 154 156 159 132 107 100 95 93 90 92 93 96 105 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -50.9 -51.0 -50.6 -50.7 -51.1 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 80 77 76 73 69 62 60 57 58 51 48 45 42 39 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 24 25 23 24 20 19 18 16 14 11 10 8 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 74 82 84 85 84 102 96 80 60 52 41 41 25 43 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 145 135 115 116 79 19 13 30 17 -9 -4 4 -24 12 5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 4 1 -2 -5 -10 -7 -6 0 -1 6 0 2 -1 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1143 1104 1068 1023 992 965 1067 1191 1295 1455 1647 1759 1881 1758 1432 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.5 16.4 18.4 19.7 20.5 21.4 22.1 22.6 23.1 23.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.6 114.9 115.1 115.8 116.5 118.4 121.0 123.6 125.7 128.0 130.6 133.1 135.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 6 8 11 13 13 13 12 11 12 12 12 13 15 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 20 21 20 24 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):205/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -4. -7. -11. -15. -17. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 0. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -15. -16. -15. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. -1. -5. -10. -14. -20. -26. -30. -34. -35. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.6 114.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052024 EMILIA 08/06/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.56 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.25 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 96.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.74 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 4.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.31 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.17 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.75 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 22.5% 18.1% 15.7% 12.6% 20.3% 13.5% 6.3% Logistic: 0.5% 2.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 8.3% 6.3% 5.3% 4.2% 6.8% 4.5% 2.1% DTOPS: 10.0% 10.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% SDCON: 7.2% 9.1% 6.6% 5.6% 4.6% 4.4% 3.2% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052024 EMILIA 08/06/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##