* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP052024 08/06/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 49 51 56 55 52 49 43 35 28 23 20 19 20 22 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 49 51 56 55 52 49 43 35 28 23 20 19 20 22 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 49 50 51 52 48 43 38 31 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 21 22 21 22 10 7 9 8 8 3 3 6 9 18 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -3 -3 -1 2 4 6 7 6 3 5 -1 1 1 6 SHEAR DIR 82 78 60 56 51 55 59 78 96 66 74 349 307 264 268 266 249 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 28.0 25.6 23.9 23.2 23.0 22.7 22.6 22.7 23.0 23.5 24.3 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 155 159 161 146 121 102 95 92 90 89 90 93 98 107 112 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 -50.9 -51.4 -51.2 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 78 80 81 79 77 71 67 63 60 61 59 57 53 52 50 47 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 22 24 24 25 23 21 21 19 16 13 11 9 7 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR 71 63 61 73 71 59 67 93 75 55 43 49 39 39 33 33 25 200 MB DIV 145 139 122 119 105 45 -3 13 26 9 -11 3 -5 -2 11 5 0 700-850 TADV 5 2 1 -5 -7 -16 -1 -2 3 0 5 1 11 3 8 3 11 LAND (KM) 1116 1100 1085 1018 955 877 924 1076 1179 1312 1498 1636 1768 1874 1633 1380 1184 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.8 15.6 18.1 19.8 20.5 21.4 22.1 22.7 23.4 24.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.2 114.2 114.2 114.5 114.8 116.7 119.3 122.1 124.3 126.4 128.8 131.6 134.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 5 8 12 15 14 12 11 11 12 14 13 12 12 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 26 31 32 34 29 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. 1. -1. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -11. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 10. 7. 4. -2. -10. -17. -22. -25. -26. -25. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.7 114.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052024 EMILIA 08/06/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.66 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.30 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 126.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.78 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.21 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.26 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.93 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 19.6% 16.0% 13.8% 11.5% 20.6% 17.0% 9.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 6.8% 5.4% 4.6% 3.8% 6.9% 5.7% 3.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 10.0% 6.0% 5.0% 3.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% SDCON: 4.2% 8.4% 5.7% 4.8% 3.4% 5.9% 3.8% 1.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052024 EMILIA 08/06/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##