* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP052024 08/05/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 48 52 58 63 62 63 58 52 45 38 32 29 29 30 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 48 52 58 63 62 63 58 52 45 38 32 29 29 30 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 46 48 51 53 51 47 41 35 29 24 20 17 16 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 19 19 19 14 9 6 5 6 5 2 1 3 4 6 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 1 0 -2 -3 -1 0 2 -2 1 -2 0 -4 0 2 2 SHEAR DIR 85 83 78 76 61 48 89 88 102 97 25 11 66 154 205 237 256 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 26.3 24.2 23.3 23.0 22.8 22.5 22.8 23.0 23.2 23.6 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 153 155 157 128 107 97 93 90 88 91 92 94 99 111 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -51.5 -51.2 -51.2 -50.8 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 -50.8 -50.9 -50.9 -51.5 -51.8 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 78 79 80 81 79 74 71 65 57 55 57 53 52 49 47 46 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 24 25 27 27 25 27 25 23 21 18 16 13 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 74 73 74 71 80 68 75 108 85 79 73 76 56 61 44 50 42 200 MB DIV 136 132 116 114 142 71 16 17 8 -11 -9 -16 -7 -15 9 10 15 700-850 TADV 11 5 1 0 -6 -9 -1 -1 0 -1 -5 3 -1 1 5 5 3 LAND (KM) 1097 1104 1113 1085 1058 922 924 1071 1163 1315 1494 1658 1764 1920 1751 1507 1232 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.9 13.9 14.3 14.7 16.9 18.9 19.8 21.4 22.2 22.4 22.8 23.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.0 114.3 114.6 114.8 115.1 116.1 118.4 121.2 124.1 126.5 128.6 131.1 134.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 5 8 13 14 15 14 11 10 13 13 10 10 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 32 29 23 24 21 20 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 9. 12. 13. 12. 10. 8. 4. 1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 9. 6. 4. 0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 23. 22. 23. 18. 12. 5. -2. -8. -11. -11. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.8 114.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052024 EMILIA 08/05/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.69 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.31 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -6.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 128.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.79 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.22 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.5% 22.2% 17.1% 14.3% 11.3% 24.0% 19.8% 12.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 7.7% 5.7% 4.8% 3.8% 8.0% 6.9% 4.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 11.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.8% 9.3% 5.8% 4.4% 2.9% 6.0% 4.9% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052024 EMILIA 08/05/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##