* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP052024 08/05/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 44 47 54 59 60 60 57 53 46 39 34 32 31 32 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 44 47 54 59 60 60 57 53 46 39 34 32 31 32 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 45 47 51 52 50 47 42 36 31 25 21 18 16 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 16 19 19 20 20 19 13 11 9 6 4 3 1 4 9 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 0 0 -3 0 0 2 0 0 -2 -4 0 -3 2 2 SHEAR DIR 86 79 79 83 74 66 55 99 105 101 76 50 346 343 236 227 232 SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 28.7 25.9 24.2 23.5 23.1 22.7 22.8 22.9 23.0 23.5 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 152 155 156 157 152 124 106 98 94 90 91 92 93 99 111 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -51.0 -51.6 -51.1 -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -51.2 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 78 79 80 80 83 78 76 70 67 60 58 57 54 51 50 47 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 22 24 26 27 26 26 25 24 22 19 16 14 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 66 70 67 66 67 74 78 83 104 85 64 61 62 54 39 24 25 200 MB DIV 95 107 119 107 120 112 54 0 12 27 18 -29 -4 0 3 9 12 700-850 TADV 9 8 5 2 -1 -8 -11 0 -2 1 -1 -1 0 0 2 3 -1 LAND (KM) 1009 1052 1094 1062 1033 990 997 1028 1154 1248 1374 1562 1711 1837 1894 1650 1320 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.4 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.8 17.1 18.7 19.8 21.0 22.1 22.9 23.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.1 114.3 114.4 114.6 114.8 115.7 117.3 119.6 122.4 124.8 127.1 129.6 132.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 1 4 6 8 12 14 13 13 12 13 13 11 11 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 39 36 28 29 28 24 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 14. 14. 12. 10. 7. 4. 1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 5. 4. 1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 19. 20. 20. 17. 13. 6. -1. -6. -8. -9. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.7 114.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052024 EMILIA 08/05/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.70 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.36 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.70 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.21 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.28 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.79 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.8% 18.6% 15.2% 13.0% 10.8% 21.6% 19.1% 12.1% Logistic: 0.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 6.7% 5.2% 4.4% 3.6% 7.3% 6.6% 4.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 8.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.7% 7.3% 5.1% 3.7% 2.8% 5.6% 4.8% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052024 EMILIA 08/05/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##