* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE EP052024 08/04/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 47 55 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 47 55 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 42 46 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 9 10 14 19 14 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -3 -2 -2 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 103 106 92 97 97 89 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 159 160 157 155 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 75 77 80 79 81 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 15 16 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 38 47 62 68 61 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 36 45 92 116 135 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 3 4 9 10 0 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 865 909 953 1006 1058 1075 989 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.4 15.0 14.6 14.1 13.8 14.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.1 113.3 113.5 113.7 113.8 113.4 112.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 4 5 3 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 34 38 40 39 36 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 25. 31. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.7 113.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052024 FIVE 08/04/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.82 7.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.64 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -6.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.49 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.32 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 54% is 11.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.5% 24.4% 18.3% 15.2% 0.0% 24.6% 25.2% 54.0% Logistic: 1.6% 7.3% 2.0% 1.1% 0.5% 2.0% 9.0% 8.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 4.7% Consensus: 4.4% 11.2% 6.9% 5.5% 0.2% 8.9% 11.5% 22.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 28.0% 17.0% 8.0% 4.0% 10.0% 6.0% 2.0% SDCON: 3.2% 19.6% 11.9% 6.7% 2.1% 9.4% 8.7% 12.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052024 FIVE 08/04/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##