* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIEL EP042024 08/04/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 39 41 42 43 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 39 41 42 43 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 36 37 37 37 35 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 4 6 4 4 7 8 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 19 20 17 49 137 145 172 204 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.5 27.4 26.6 26.2 26.0 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 142 140 138 128 123 121 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 59 60 61 60 60 56 47 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 56 54 47 45 52 43 51 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 14 14 0 7 -3 9 0 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2254 2161 2068 1940 1812 1657 1612 1606 1742 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.8 14.3 15.1 15.9 17.1 18.0 18.8 18.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 130.1 129.5 128.8 128.0 127.1 126.3 126.6 127.3 128.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 10 11 9 6 5 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 10 8 5 6 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.2 130.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042024 DANIEL 08/04/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.63 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.71 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.23 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.2 58.2 to 0.0 0.88 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 15.7% 12.5% 10.2% 7.9% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 4.6% 3.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 6.8% 5.3% 3.6% 2.8% 5.5% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.9% 4.4% 3.1% 2.3% 1.4% 2.7% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042024 DANIEL 08/04/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##