* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIEL EP042024 08/04/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 36 39 39 38 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 36 39 39 38 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 35 36 35 34 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 9 4 4 4 6 6 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 26 13 342 352 5 134 144 175 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.6 26.1 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 146 142 139 135 127 123 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 53 58 60 61 59 58 49 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 51 58 58 46 48 46 45 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 45 28 17 8 12 -1 -4 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 1 -2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2309 2239 2168 2056 1944 1743 1649 1620 1626 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.4 13.8 14.5 15.1 16.4 17.3 18.3 19.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 130.5 130.0 129.6 128.8 128.0 126.7 126.4 127.0 127.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 8 10 9 7 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 12 10 7 5 5 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 9. 12. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.9 130.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042024 DANIEL 08/04/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.65 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.70 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 165.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 -5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.29 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.6 58.2 to 0.0 0.47 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 18.8% 13.4% 11.0% 8.6% 17.4% 15.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 6.7% 4.8% 3.7% 2.9% 5.8% 5.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.5% 3.8% 2.9% 2.3% 1.4% 2.9% 2.5% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042024 DANIEL 08/04/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##