* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIEL EP042024 08/04/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 40 42 42 40 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 39 40 42 42 40 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 36 37 38 38 36 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 14 10 3 0 6 8 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 1 2 0 0 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 41 30 36 66 18 186 243 237 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.3 26.4 25.7 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 148 145 141 137 126 118 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 51 52 56 58 58 58 52 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 9 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 21 47 60 59 45 65 55 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 36 42 17 15 18 -16 -11 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2357 2290 2224 2123 2022 1789 1634 1574 1535 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.9 13.3 14.0 14.6 16.1 17.6 18.8 19.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 130.6 130.2 129.8 129.2 128.5 127.0 126.5 126.9 127.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 9 10 9 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 13 13 10 7 5 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.4 130.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042024 DANIEL 08/04/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.67 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.61 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 181.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.30 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.2 58.2 to 0.0 0.67 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 20.2% 14.4% 11.7% 9.1% 18.4% 15.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 7.9% 5.8% 1.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 9.5% 6.7% 4.2% 3.4% 6.2% 5.2% 0.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.1% 5.7% 3.8% 2.6% 1.7% 3.1% 2.6% .1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042024 DANIEL 08/04/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##