* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952024 08/03/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 31 33 36 41 44 44 41 35 30 28 28 30 33 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 31 33 36 41 44 44 41 35 30 28 28 30 33 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 31 32 34 36 35 33 28 23 19 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 16 16 16 16 13 10 10 26 34 39 47 46 40 37 23 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 0 -1 0 5 8 1 -2 -7 -16 -5 4 2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 56 53 36 43 49 39 44 47 88 85 79 68 62 55 72 65 66 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 153 152 150 153 152 152 152 153 152 149 153 156 153 152 154 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 -52.2 -51.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 49 48 44 45 46 49 55 56 57 59 63 58 56 57 63 63 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 9 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 29 31 30 36 19 20 4 -17 -24 -20 -52 -62 -73 -80 -100 -88 200 MB DIV 53 45 57 46 59 74 44 23 35 69 46 45 8 37 52 29 43 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 8 7 3 0 -4 -7 -6 -1 LAND (KM) 2291 2336 2374 2396 2404 2389 2279 2126 2025 2029 2050 2042 1948 1789 1619 1522 1510 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.2 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.0 12.1 12.0 11.5 10.5 9.4 9.0 9.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.6 130.1 130.5 130.8 130.9 130.6 129.2 127.1 125.2 124.0 123.1 122.5 121.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 3 2 0 4 9 10 9 7 6 3 6 8 7 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 16 16 16 16 18 16 19 31 38 37 34 34 30 35 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 36. 38. 40. 41. 41. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -14. -22. -31. -38. -40. -39. -37. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 14. 14. 11. 5. 1. -2. -2. -0. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.3 129.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952024 INVEST 08/03/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.76 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.42 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 201.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 -4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.42 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.34 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.69 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 20.2% 13.5% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 6.9% 4.6% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.5% 3.9% 2.8% 1.8% 0% 0% .5% .6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952024 INVEST 08/03/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##