* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952024 08/03/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 31 33 35 39 42 42 40 37 32 29 29 29 32 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 31 33 35 39 42 42 40 37 32 29 29 29 32 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 33 34 35 36 36 35 32 27 22 18 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 19 16 16 14 16 11 10 19 35 38 40 47 44 44 32 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -1 -2 0 -2 2 7 9 1 -1 -7 -8 3 1 2 -4 SHEAR DIR 66 60 54 42 49 45 18 19 61 94 79 66 63 61 62 72 89 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.6 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 153 153 154 154 154 153 151 154 151 149 151 155 154 154 155 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -52.2 -52.7 -52.6 -53.3 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 51 49 46 42 44 48 52 56 53 58 59 60 55 55 60 64 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 24 26 27 29 30 3 4 -24 -40 -17 -28 -53 -61 -64 -90 -90 200 MB DIV 23 49 35 56 58 93 58 55 14 64 114 97 79 37 37 23 4 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 9 10 5 0 -3 -7 -8 -3 LAND (KM) 2269 2330 2391 2422 2452 2454 2389 2244 2093 2044 2051 2034 1945 1776 1594 1469 1484 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.1 11.8 11.7 11.6 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.2 10.4 9.3 8.7 9.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.3 129.9 130.4 130.7 131.0 130.8 129.9 128.0 125.8 124.1 123.0 122.0 121.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 4 3 2 2 7 10 10 9 7 5 6 9 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 17 16 32 38 35 32 34 32 38 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 20. 25. 30. 34. 37. 40. 42. 43. 43. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -16. -23. -31. -38. -41. -41. -39. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 12. 10. 7. 2. -1. -1. -1. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.3 129.3 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952024 INVEST 08/03/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.77 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.34 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 202.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 -4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.38 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.0 58.2 to 0.0 0.40 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.69 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 16.4% 11.9% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 5.8% 4.1% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952024 INVEST 08/03/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##