* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952024 08/02/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 25 26 28 32 38 41 41 39 36 32 29 27 28 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 25 26 28 32 38 41 41 39 36 32 29 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 20 18 17 17 19 14 10 20 32 39 38 37 43 39 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 2 1 1 -2 4 8 6 2 -3 0 3 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 66 61 66 64 60 43 19 41 34 80 85 76 66 58 57 61 70 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.9 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 153 153 152 153 152 150 153 154 150 147 146 147 151 154 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 2 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 54 50 49 48 47 45 48 50 54 55 61 64 63 57 53 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 8 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 10 16 26 30 30 29 7 -9 -29 -24 -8 -46 -59 -73 -81 -91 200 MB DIV 52 33 16 52 40 82 110 60 42 9 71 116 150 110 45 85 29 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 5 10 9 3 0 -1 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 2142 2208 2277 2338 2392 2449 2437 2338 2167 2031 2015 2059 2092 2076 2024 1942 1861 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.6 12.3 12.0 11.7 11.2 11.0 11.0 11.2 11.1 10.1 8.8 7.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.1 128.8 129.4 129.9 130.3 130.5 130.1 128.8 126.8 124.8 123.4 122.5 121.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 4 2 4 9 10 9 8 7 4 2 3 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 17 16 16 16 16 16 14 23 34 37 36 34 32 33 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 27. 32. 37. 40. 44. 45. 46. 46. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -11. -14. -19. -26. -33. -36. -36. -37. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 12. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 16. 16. 14. 11. 7. 4. 2. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 128.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952024 INVEST 08/02/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.81 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.23 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 157.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.35 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.24 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.14 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.9 58.2 to 0.0 0.49 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.83 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.3% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.2% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0% 2.1% 1.2% 0% 0% 0% 0% .7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952024 INVEST 08/02/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##