* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952024 08/02/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 25 28 32 37 41 44 48 46 42 38 35 32 32 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 25 28 32 37 41 44 48 46 42 38 35 32 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 25 25 24 25 26 25 21 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 16 16 18 19 18 14 10 15 17 37 43 42 45 48 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 1 3 4 2 2 2 6 0 -3 -5 -5 1 7 5 0 SHEAR DIR 78 67 68 59 65 54 31 22 25 66 89 90 76 52 51 49 61 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.2 28.6 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 153 153 153 150 150 154 154 154 153 156 153 150 146 151 153 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -51.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -52.3 -52.5 -51.9 -52.4 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 58 57 53 50 48 49 45 48 54 61 64 70 72 70 69 71 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 15 15 20 28 41 29 28 7 -16 -19 29 45 37 29 14 2 200 MB DIV 62 36 62 45 39 73 81 83 55 28 59 48 92 101 90 58 45 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 13 12 4 0 -5 -13 LAND (KM) 1987 2035 2090 2158 2211 2306 2323 2244 2083 1891 1787 1799 1835 1798 1662 1434 1222 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.2 13.0 12.7 12.4 11.7 11.3 11.2 11.5 12.0 11.7 10.6 9.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.5 127.1 127.6 128.2 128.6 129.1 128.9 127.8 126.0 123.9 122.1 121.0 119.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 6 5 3 3 7 11 10 8 8 8 6 9 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 18 19 21 21 19 19 19 17 22 25 34 29 30 11 13 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 13. 20. 26. 31. 35. 39. 42. 45. 46. 47. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -4. -8. -9. -11. -13. -18. -25. -30. -32. -34. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 0. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 23. 21. 17. 13. 10. 7. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 126.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952024 INVEST 08/02/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.81 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.24 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.40 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.16 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.8 58.2 to 0.0 0.51 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.6% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.5% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0% 2.7% 2.0% 0% 0% 1.8% .5% .7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952024 INVEST 08/02/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##