* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952024 08/01/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 21 24 29 34 39 42 45 46 48 49 49 48 46 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 21 24 29 34 39 42 45 46 48 49 49 48 46 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 22 22 22 21 21 21 21 21 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 13 15 15 13 18 17 17 21 23 22 14 13 25 37 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 2 3 4 3 6 2 0 4 0 -3 0 1 1 3 SHEAR DIR 107 99 92 77 87 47 58 51 67 66 71 71 96 114 111 90 63 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.0 29.3 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 152 152 153 155 156 154 157 158 157 157 151 155 156 154 149 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -52.2 -52.6 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 60 61 59 57 60 58 53 54 55 58 66 74 77 79 80 82 79 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 7 8 4 10 20 28 31 65 72 42 33 -25 -12 75 98 99 200 MB DIV 33 39 20 30 48 45 65 87 61 36 68 -11 68 62 109 124 136 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 8 5 -1 1 5 8 12 5 LAND (KM) 1750 1779 1824 1862 1893 1986 2088 2134 2072 1914 1621 1344 1238 1309 1435 1571 1519 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.5 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.1 12.6 12.2 12.2 12.3 13.4 14.6 14.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.7 124.1 124.6 125.1 125.5 126.4 127.2 127.4 126.6 124.6 121.7 119.3 118.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 4 4 4 3 1 6 13 16 9 2 5 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 18 20 24 27 28 22 22 23 21 24 26 43 23 29 41 31 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 4. 11. 18. 24. 30. 35. 39. 41. 43. 45. 47. 51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -15. -15. -13. -12. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 22. 25. 26. 28. 29. 29. 28. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.5 123.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952024 INVEST 08/01/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.85 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.9 58.2 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% SDCON: 0% .7% .5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 10.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952024 INVEST 08/01/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##